I do not think France will directly intervene. Why would they? They have enough terrorist proxies in the region to do it for them There is always KSA which the Western regimes are already using, along with UAE, to loot Yemen. I think Biden threatened Tinubu at the G20 to invade or be exposed as a fraud. African countries seems to have the idea that the Western terrorist regimes practice democracy in their nations and it is not true.
I have heard these claims of blackmail, but seen no evidence for them. I have also heard claims that Tinubu is a puppet of USA, which is funny given that the Americans never wanted Tinubu as President in the first place and openly supported the third-party candidate, Peter Obi during the February 2023 election.
After the February 2023 elections saw Tinubu declared the "Presidential-Elect", some alternative media platforms began claiming that USA would stage Colour Revolution in Nigeria and install Peter Obi as President. I debunked that straight away in the article below and subsequent events have proven me right:
Nigerian journalist, David Hundeyin-- who viscerally dislikes the highly corrupt Tinubu for understandable reasons---has made a series of claims, but I have seen no evidence that they are accurate.
The Americans can actually live with the reality of the Niger junta, but only if they are 100% sure that the junta would not allow the Russians to move in. Many of the junta leaders in Niger received US military training. Funnily enough, they have not called on 1,100 American troops in their country to leave (although they are asking 1,500 French troops to leave).
France, on the other hand, cannot compromise under any circumstances for obvious reasons.
Still not convinced U.S. isn’t somehow involved in this. The training of the junta members, they want Europe to be destroyed, France tried to join BRICS and was laughed at, and now this …
Thank you, US might have preferred Obi but they are fine with Tinubu as long as he does what USA wants. You do not have to see evidence of blackmailing because it is just what US does. US also does not care about France or any of the EU countries. They want Europe destroyed and dependent on the US.
I do not know much about the individual candidates in Nigeria for President honestly. I am just learning. I do know Buhari who is responsible for the Shia massacres.
Good afternoon, Chima (sorry for my english, that's in first place).
¿Which are the reasons that moves to the small countries of the CEDEAO and the region to military intervention on Niger? I can see some electoralism, concern about that coups, ideologicall reasons, concern about economical effects on them, the terrorist issue, the coalition that make them strong in oposition to Nigeria, etc... But I will like to know which are the main reasons for you.
The political institutions of the smaller countries of CEDEAO are weak and fragile. Therefore, the likelihood of a military coup is much higher in those countries than in Nigeria. When there is a coup, there is always the possibility of civil war.
All official pan-African organizations (including AU, SADC and CEDEAO) are opposed to coups because they have caused political instability, civil strife and many bloody wars in the past.
I will give a few examples in smaller CEDEAO countries...
French-speaking Ivory Coast (Cote d' Ivoire) was politically stable from 1960 until the military coup of 1999, which introduced political instabilities that eventually led to two civil wars (2002–2007 and 2010 – 2011). During the Second Ivorian Civil War, on 11 April 2011, President Nicolas Sarkozy sent French troops to overthrow the Ivorian government. This enabled the rebels to win the second civil war.
English-speaking Liberia was politically stable as a sovereign nation for 133 years (1847 – 1980). Then the bloody coup of April 1980 introduced instabilities that led to two civil wars (1989 –1997 and 1999 – 2003). Nigerian-controlled CEDEAO was forced to send soldiers into Liberia in 1990 and again in 2000 to try and end the civil wars.
English-speaking Sierra Leone had coups after coups after coups and a bloody civil war, which caused Nigerian military forces to go into Sierra Leone in 1997. CEDEAO joined later on.
Nigeria and CEDEAO also sent troops to English-speaking Gambia in 2017 to settle the political crisis there and prevent war.
For the same reason, CEDEAO also sent troops to Portuguese-speaking Guinea-Bissau in 1999 to end the civil war there. To make sure a new war does not start, CEDEAO also sent troops to Guinea-Bissau again in 2012 and 2022.
These smaller CEDEAO countries have histories that resembles that of Spain in the 1920s and 1930s. You had a military coup by General Francisco Franco in July 1936. The coup failed and that caused the Spanish Civil War (1936-1939).
What is happening in West Africa is very complex. It is not the simplistic heroic Niger junta fighting France and USA while CEDEAO is just their puppet. This is complete nonsense by people who don't understand West Africa and its history.
Niger itself has a long history of coups that led to civil strife and there are tensions between the North and South of the country because Northerners, who are people of mixed African/Arab descent, feel discriminated against by Southerners who are mostly dark-skinned Africans (like me).
I understand now, that the main reason is the extremely concern about the danger of that coups and their consequences of inestability that extends, like an earthquake, far away from the epicenter. I appreciate the comparation with Spain, and the terrible consequences that had on multiple levels (economy, losses of lifes, undevelopment respect other countries of Europe, hate and persecutions...) that affect the whole country and all the sides implicated during decades.
Thanks for the link. I am aware of this Defence alliance. Would be great if it can be used to recover large swathes of Northern Mali which is in the hands of separatist Tuareg rebels fighting for their own nation since the 1960s. There are also other Malian territories under jihadist terrorists.
Burkina Faso would benefit from the alliance if it can be used to recover roughly 40% of its territory rendered ungovernable by Islamic terrorists.
Mali and Burkina Faso trying to come to the defence of Niger, which is relatively more stable than both of them, is the equivalent of two persons, each with their houses on fire, coming to the aid of a third person whose house is only giving off smoke
I do not think France will directly intervene. Why would they? They have enough terrorist proxies in the region to do it for them There is always KSA which the Western regimes are already using, along with UAE, to loot Yemen. I think Biden threatened Tinubu at the G20 to invade or be exposed as a fraud. African countries seems to have the idea that the Western terrorist regimes practice democracy in their nations and it is not true.
I have heard these claims of blackmail, but seen no evidence for them. I have also heard claims that Tinubu is a puppet of USA, which is funny given that the Americans never wanted Tinubu as President in the first place and openly supported the third-party candidate, Peter Obi during the February 2023 election.
After the February 2023 elections saw Tinubu declared the "Presidential-Elect", some alternative media platforms began claiming that USA would stage Colour Revolution in Nigeria and install Peter Obi as President. I debunked that straight away in the article below and subsequent events have proven me right:
https://theduran.locals.com/post/3608085/africa-news-candidate-peter-obi-us-government-and-nigerian-presidential-elections-i-will-start
Nigerian journalist, David Hundeyin-- who viscerally dislikes the highly corrupt Tinubu for understandable reasons---has made a series of claims, but I have seen no evidence that they are accurate.
The Americans can actually live with the reality of the Niger junta, but only if they are 100% sure that the junta would not allow the Russians to move in. Many of the junta leaders in Niger received US military training. Funnily enough, they have not called on 1,100 American troops in their country to leave (although they are asking 1,500 French troops to leave).
France, on the other hand, cannot compromise under any circumstances for obvious reasons.
Still not convinced U.S. isn’t somehow involved in this. The training of the junta members, they want Europe to be destroyed, France tried to join BRICS and was laughed at, and now this …
https://carinamalatesta.substack.com/p/niger-eu-returns-humanitarian-aide
Thank you, US might have preferred Obi but they are fine with Tinubu as long as he does what USA wants. You do not have to see evidence of blackmailing because it is just what US does. US also does not care about France or any of the EU countries. They want Europe destroyed and dependent on the US.
I do not know much about the individual candidates in Nigeria for President honestly. I am just learning. I do know Buhari who is responsible for the Shia massacres.
Good afternoon, Chima (sorry for my english, that's in first place).
¿Which are the reasons that moves to the small countries of the CEDEAO and the region to military intervention on Niger? I can see some electoralism, concern about that coups, ideologicall reasons, concern about economical effects on them, the terrorist issue, the coalition that make them strong in oposition to Nigeria, etc... But I will like to know which are the main reasons for you.
Thanks in advance.
The political institutions of the smaller countries of CEDEAO are weak and fragile. Therefore, the likelihood of a military coup is much higher in those countries than in Nigeria. When there is a coup, there is always the possibility of civil war.
All official pan-African organizations (including AU, SADC and CEDEAO) are opposed to coups because they have caused political instability, civil strife and many bloody wars in the past.
I will give a few examples in smaller CEDEAO countries...
French-speaking Ivory Coast (Cote d' Ivoire) was politically stable from 1960 until the military coup of 1999, which introduced political instabilities that eventually led to two civil wars (2002–2007 and 2010 – 2011). During the Second Ivorian Civil War, on 11 April 2011, President Nicolas Sarkozy sent French troops to overthrow the Ivorian government. This enabled the rebels to win the second civil war.
English-speaking Liberia was politically stable as a sovereign nation for 133 years (1847 – 1980). Then the bloody coup of April 1980 introduced instabilities that led to two civil wars (1989 –1997 and 1999 – 2003). Nigerian-controlled CEDEAO was forced to send soldiers into Liberia in 1990 and again in 2000 to try and end the civil wars.
English-speaking Sierra Leone had coups after coups after coups and a bloody civil war, which caused Nigerian military forces to go into Sierra Leone in 1997. CEDEAO joined later on.
Nigeria and CEDEAO also sent troops to English-speaking Gambia in 2017 to settle the political crisis there and prevent war.
For the same reason, CEDEAO also sent troops to Portuguese-speaking Guinea-Bissau in 1999 to end the civil war there. To make sure a new war does not start, CEDEAO also sent troops to Guinea-Bissau again in 2012 and 2022.
These smaller CEDEAO countries have histories that resembles that of Spain in the 1920s and 1930s. You had a military coup by General Francisco Franco in July 1936. The coup failed and that caused the Spanish Civil War (1936-1939).
What is happening in West Africa is very complex. It is not the simplistic heroic Niger junta fighting France and USA while CEDEAO is just their puppet. This is complete nonsense by people who don't understand West Africa and its history.
Niger itself has a long history of coups that led to civil strife and there are tensions between the North and South of the country because Northerners, who are people of mixed African/Arab descent, feel discriminated against by Southerners who are mostly dark-skinned Africans (like me).
Thanks a lot for your answer.
I understand now, that the main reason is the extremely concern about the danger of that coups and their consequences of inestability that extends, like an earthquake, far away from the epicenter. I appreciate the comparation with Spain, and the terrible consequences that had on multiple levels (economy, losses of lifes, undevelopment respect other countries of Europe, hate and persecutions...) that affect the whole country and all the sides implicated during decades.
Thanks for asking the question.
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/mali-niger-and-burkina-faso-establish-collective-defense-all
Thanks for the link. I am aware of this Defence alliance. Would be great if it can be used to recover large swathes of Northern Mali which is in the hands of separatist Tuareg rebels fighting for their own nation since the 1960s. There are also other Malian territories under jihadist terrorists.
Burkina Faso would benefit from the alliance if it can be used to recover roughly 40% of its territory rendered ungovernable by Islamic terrorists.
Mali and Burkina Faso trying to come to the defence of Niger, which is relatively more stable than both of them, is the equivalent of two persons, each with their houses on fire, coming to the aid of a third person whose house is only giving off smoke
Your fire analogy feels like my life :)