THE NIGER CRISIS EXPLAINER

NOTE: This post is for new readers. Those who came here to read what I have to say about the crisis in Niger Republic, which is the next door to my own country, Nigeria.

THE EXPLAINER

There is a deep lack of understanding of the crisis in Niger Republic and I have seen a lot of articles and YouTube videos describing the situation in extremely simplistic terms.

At a time when several alt-media outlets were making wrong predictions about an imminent military invasion by so-called “puppets of USA and France”, I made the following prescient prediction in early August 2023, which turned out to be spot on:

There is no doubt that France and USA desperately wants ECOWAS to intervene in Niger. Both countries are frustrated and disappointed that a military intervention has not already begun. But the fact of the matter is that the final decision to intervene does not rest with those NATO countries. An actual ECOWAS intervention would depend a lot on the domestic political situation both in Nigeria and in Niger Republic. Until then, Nuland, Blinken, Sullivan and Macron would have to read the tea leaves like everybody else.

Yes, my dear readers. France and USA does not actually have the unlimited powers of influence conferred upon them by alt-media opinion makers, most of whom did not even know that a country called Niger Republic existed prior to February 2022.

The aim of my articles on the Niger crisis is to provide the reader with a three-dimensional view of what is really going on in that poor arid nation of Niger and the wider West African subregion.

If you haven’t already done so, I would encourage you to read the articles in the following order :

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FIRST ARTICLE:

An explainer of what ECOWAS is all about, why Nigeria created it in 1975, and what is the disposition of various important African states sharing borders with Niger Republic. Some African history thrown in as well:

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SECOND ARTICLE:

Brief discussion of how Northern Nigerian senators got their Southern counterparts to deny Tinubu’s request to the Federal Senate to support military intervention in ECOWAS:

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THIRD ARTICLE:

A detailed discussion of the situation inside Niger Republic, Nigeria, Algeria as well as the geopolitical manoeuvrings of USA and France. Contrary to what some think, both NATO countries’ interests in Niger are not aligned. A discussion of uranium production in Niger and Tinubu holding the line against hardline smaller member-states of ECOWAS pushing for the organisation’s rules on military intervention to be activated:

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FOURTH ARTICLE:

A detailed discussion of what has been happening in the West African subregion (including Niger). A discussion of the unity in the African Union against the military coup d'état in Niger, but sharp disagreements over ECOWAS plan for a military intervention to remove the incipient junta taking hold of that country:

FIFTH ARTICLE:

A detailed discussion of behind-the-scenes bickering between USA and France; why Turkey weighed in on the Niger crisis; ousted President Bazoum makes a cameo public appearance; Algeria’s diplomatic campaign in West Africa and its proposals for a peaceful resolution of the Niger crisis; top decision-making organ of the African Union overcomes differences to issue a communique on the Niger crisis; Nigeria’s President Tinubu tells the Americans that he is now focussed on a diplomatic solution to the Niger crisis :

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MINI-UPDATE FOR MY OLDER READERS

If you are an older reader of mine or a new one who has read all the articles above, then I have something fresh for you about the ongoing crisis in Niger.

As you already know, the Niger junta’s proposal for a three-year grace period before getting back to elected governance has been rejected by ECOWAS as the military rulers of nearby Guinea had used the same strategy in September 2021 to pacify the organisation and buy time to consolidate power.

The Algerian proposal for a six-month grace period looks like a good baseline that Nigeria’s President Tinubu would use to negotiate with the coup leaders. However, the smaller member-states of ECOWAS, all politically fragile, want no compromise with the junta. They just want it gone.

It isn’t just Francophone states like Ivory Coast, Benin, Togo and Senegal. Anglophone Sierra Leone is also hardline. That English-speaking African state has never been under the yoke of French neocolonialism, but has experienced coups after coups after coups and a horrific civil war that resulted in a Nigerian military intervention in 1997.

In fact, the Sierra Leonian Civil War began as a spill-over from the First Liberian Civil War, which was itself presaged by political instabilities resulting from the 1980 military coup that ended 133 years of Americo-Liberian rule. (The first side bar within this June 2023 article explains who Americo-Liberians are and reasons for the 1980 coup).

Currently, the smaller member-states of ECOWAS seem to have given up on the leadership of a reluctant Nigeria and are now gathering a military force of 30,000 troops on the Benin-Niger border.

The Niger junta claims that France is preparing to intervene through that border. However, I think it is more likely that France is merely supplying advanced military equipment to member-states straining at the leash to intervene. An outright French military intervention is the talk of people who are clueless about the current tattered state of Charles De Gaulle’s La Francafrique system in Francophone Africa.

I still think that without Nigeria’s say so, it would be difficult for these smaller member-states to mount an effective intervention in Niger on their own.

It should be noted that those same member-states wanted to go into Mali and Burkina Faso after coup d'états there, but Nigeria’s refusal to activate ECOWAS protocol for military intervention killed the whole thing.

French officials could not even get an audience with then Nigerian President Buhari to discuss the possibility of an intervention in Mali and Burkina Faso. Why Nigeria wasn’t willing to intervene in both countries is discussed in the article, Second Update on the Niger Crisis.

The military regimes in both Mali and Burkina Faso have since consolidated power and hired Wagner mercenaries to stave off jihadists who are trying to overrun both countries. France has also been humiliated over there as extensively reported in this article.

Circling back to the 30,000 troops at the Benin-Niger border…

Even though, Nigeria’s President Tinubu is no longer interested in military intervention due to domestic opposition, especially from Northern Nigeria, it is possible that his hand may be forced.

If those smaller member-states, with French encouragement, were to defy Nigeria, and intervene in Niger in the name of ECOWAS, and then begin to falter, Tinubu may feel compelled to rescue the operation by activating Nigerian ground forces currently massed at the Nigeria-Niger border and Nigerian Air Force presently patrolling the skies above it.

Of course, what I am discussing here is purely hypothetical because despite manoeuvring of troops, jet planes and other military equipment along the long Niger-Nigeria border and the relatively shorter Benin-Niger frontier, there is no actual indication that any military conflict is imminent.

The only drama unfolding at the moment is the stand-off between France and the Niger military junta. France refuses to comply with orders to exit the country citing the fact that no other nation in the world recognizes the authority of the junta (aside from military-ruled Guinea, Mali and Burkina Faso).

Not even countries—like Algeria and South Africa—strongly opposed to ECOWAS military intervention recognize the junta in Niger. African Union has since suspended Niger from participating in its activities and endorsed Nigeria’s punitive economic blockade in its communiques, which I published in my Fourth Update on the Niger Crisis.

Like all official pan-African organizations (e.g. ECOWAS, SADC, ECCAS, Maghreb Union, East African Community), the African Union is reflexively against coups, regardless of the merits, because they have been sources of political instability and presaged so many bloody wars on the continent.

Nigerian-led ECOWAS and South African-dominated SADC both have a history of intervening in member-states to prevent or reverse military coups.

As of the time of writing, Niger coup leaders has suspended military ties with Benin Republic. The stand-off between France and the unrecognized Niger junta is escalating with the arrest of a French diplomat...

THE END

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