For those of you who read my articles on the Duran Locals Page, I have often said that, with three notable exceptions, Anglophone African countries are inhabited by populations that are very pro-Western.
Thank you for this insightful piece. Who do you think is behind the current Nigerian coup? Or do you consider it just a power-grab by the military establishment? Personally, I can see that Biden and co would certainly not wish to be seen to lose "Western" influence/control in Nigeria going into 2024.
Hello, Nigel. Thanks for the question. I think you meant to say "NigeriEN" not "NigeriAN".
The latter ("Nigerian") refers to Anglophone Nigeria while the former ("Nigerien") refers to the neighbouring Francophone Niger Republic.
Like many of the francophone states in West Africa, Niger Republic is incredibly poor (even by regional standards) and highly unstable. I know this because I am from neighbouring Nigeria, which supplies some free electricity and lorries of grain to that country---even though, generous Nigeria itself is not self-sufficient in food production.
Ironically, Nigeria is self-sufficient in fertilizer production. Thanks to several government-owned and private fertilizer plants. A new private plant was opened in March 2022 to produce 3 million metric tonnes of fertilizer annually; the largest anywhere on the continent.
Military coup d'etats are par for the course in Niger Republic. There is coup d'etat there from time to time, bringing various military dictators, none of whom are any better than the other. In between these military dictatorships, you always have these interregnums in which a previous constitution or a brand new one is put in place and general elections are held for a civilian President and a parliament. But it never ever lasts. Sooner rather than later, there is another military coup, the President is removed, parliament dissolved, the constitution abolished, and we are back to chaos.
Is there a geopolitical dimension to the coup? I don't know. It is too early to tell. But from what I have seen over the years, coups in Niger are usually about a group of soldiers wanting to get access to the coffers of the treasury as opposed to any high-minded attempts to reform and improve the country.
I think the only Western country whose influence might be at stake after the coup in Niger Republic is France (as opposed to USA). But that may not happen. Niger Republic may not follow in the footsteps of Mali and Burkina Faso
Funnily enough, the Russian-friendly military regimes in Burkina Faso and Mali have no problems with the USA, UK or the EU. It is only France that is getting its arse kicked over there. Ordinary people in both African countries only condemn France. And when things get violent there, it is only French-owned properties that get destroyed. Nobody is burning American, British or European Union-owned buildings over there. Only French ambassadors are getting expelled from both countries. No other ambassador from a NATO country is getting expelled in Mali or Burkina Faso.
So it is important to understand that these francophone African countries aren't engaging in some larger geopolitical manoeuvering against the Western World. Their focus is very narrow. They just want to rid their nations of French influence, which they perceive to be suffocating them. That is all.
Thank you for taking the time to let me know that Chima. I noted the representative of Burkina Fasa was not in attendance at the Special Meeting of ECOWAS on the 28th July.
Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea have had their membership of ECOWAS suspended due to coup d’etats. In fact, some countries in the West African sub-region do not officially recognise these military regimes in all three countries (although they engage with them unofficially).
Thank you for this insightful piece. Who do you think is behind the current Nigerian coup? Or do you consider it just a power-grab by the military establishment? Personally, I can see that Biden and co would certainly not wish to be seen to lose "Western" influence/control in Nigeria going into 2024.
Hello, Nigel. Thanks for the question. I think you meant to say "NigeriEN" not "NigeriAN".
The latter ("Nigerian") refers to Anglophone Nigeria while the former ("Nigerien") refers to the neighbouring Francophone Niger Republic.
Like many of the francophone states in West Africa, Niger Republic is incredibly poor (even by regional standards) and highly unstable. I know this because I am from neighbouring Nigeria, which supplies some free electricity and lorries of grain to that country---even though, generous Nigeria itself is not self-sufficient in food production.
Ironically, Nigeria is self-sufficient in fertilizer production. Thanks to several government-owned and private fertilizer plants. A new private plant was opened in March 2022 to produce 3 million metric tonnes of fertilizer annually; the largest anywhere on the continent.
https://www.africanews.com/2022/03/23/nigeria-launches-africa-s-largest-fertilizer-plant/
But I digress...
Military coup d'etats are par for the course in Niger Republic. There is coup d'etat there from time to time, bringing various military dictators, none of whom are any better than the other. In between these military dictatorships, you always have these interregnums in which a previous constitution or a brand new one is put in place and general elections are held for a civilian President and a parliament. But it never ever lasts. Sooner rather than later, there is another military coup, the President is removed, parliament dissolved, the constitution abolished, and we are back to chaos.
Is there a geopolitical dimension to the coup? I don't know. It is too early to tell. But from what I have seen over the years, coups in Niger are usually about a group of soldiers wanting to get access to the coffers of the treasury as opposed to any high-minded attempts to reform and improve the country.
I think the only Western country whose influence might be at stake after the coup in Niger Republic is France (as opposed to USA). But that may not happen. Niger Republic may not follow in the footsteps of Mali and Burkina Faso
Funnily enough, the Russian-friendly military regimes in Burkina Faso and Mali have no problems with the USA, UK or the EU. It is only France that is getting its arse kicked over there. Ordinary people in both African countries only condemn France. And when things get violent there, it is only French-owned properties that get destroyed. Nobody is burning American, British or European Union-owned buildings over there. Only French ambassadors are getting expelled from both countries. No other ambassador from a NATO country is getting expelled in Mali or Burkina Faso.
So it is important to understand that these francophone African countries aren't engaging in some larger geopolitical manoeuvering against the Western World. Their focus is very narrow. They just want to rid their nations of French influence, which they perceive to be suffocating them. That is all.
Apologies for the long rambling response...
Thank you Chima for your detailed and nuanced reply, much appreciated.
Just to give you the heads up, Nigeria is getting ready to use ECOWAS to end the military regime in Niger Republic
Thank you for taking the time to let me know that Chima. I noted the representative of Burkina Fasa was not in attendance at the Special Meeting of ECOWAS on the 28th July.
Burkina Faso, Mali and Guinea have had their membership of ECOWAS suspended due to coup d’etats. In fact, some countries in the West African sub-region do not officially recognise these military regimes in all three countries (although they engage with them unofficially).