Highlights: Domestic opposition remains inside Nigeria, which Tinubu would find difficult to ignore. President of ECOWAS Commission, who is Gambian, urges military intervention in Niger. In line with the wishes of the smaller member-states, the final communique issued by ECOWAS urges military intervention to restore constitutional order in Niger, citing the recalcitrance of the new military junta.
"What alarms Macron government about the military coup in Niger is not uranium supplies, but yet another blow to French influence in a Francophone African country". Indeed.
What is hardly mentioned in the press is that soon after his first election to the presidency in 2017, Macron chose as his legacy construction the costly renovation of a dilapidated royal castle known for the signature of the Villers-Coterets Act of 1539 which instituted French as the official administrative language of France instead of latin and reinforced control over the church, solidifying king François Ist's grip on the kingdom. Macron's project was to turn it into a "Cité internationale de la langue française", and to found his foreign policy on the soft power domination of the French language. Of course this was as immature and misguided as most of his political decisions, and inconsistent with the fact that he praises himself to be the first French president to express himself publicly in English, which in fact is often an embarrassment (and even led to the suppression of some tweets) his command of the language being shaky at best.
But back to the Villers-Coterets project. Since president Pompidou, each French president has left a new trophy cultural institution as his legacy (centre Pompidou, Orsay museum (Giscard d'Estaing), second national library (Mitterrand), museum of non-western civilizations (Chirac)). Macron, the first of a generation who grew up in the ersatz of American culture that now permeates France's popular culture, did not read the tea leaves and chose what was a former nursing home located in a pauperized region north-east of Paris with one of the lowest rates of literacy in the country, to house his ambitions to renew France's influence over Africa through the French language. The grandiose project was announced to be opened in March 2022 (before the next presidential election) but the opening was postponed several times and is now scheduled for October 2023. In the meantime, one poor enclaved former colony after the next is dumping French as an official language as Macron's clumsy handling of African affairs and his avowed attempt to use the French as a domination tool backfire. How many chiefs of state will show up in October? That will be a test of what remains of French cultural prestige.
Paradoxically, the institution could also be the last nail in the coffin, considering how pitiful the state of the French language is inside France itself, where a bastardized American gibberish now reigns supreme, and where national funerals are bestowed by Macron on a fake American rock singer unknown outside of France (Jean-Philippe Smet aka Johnny Halliday) while a world-renowned French singer who has sung in French in many countries (Charles Aznavour) is buried without fanfare.
[1] The new military junta of Niger remains uncompromising in its attitude towards peace dialogue offered by Northern Nigerian emissaries sent by President Bola Tinubu. One Nigerian Muslim religious scholar involved in the peace dialogue said that the coup leaders in Niger are claiming that they would only be in power for a "short time to put things right in the country" before returning to pure military duties. But then, all coup leaders in the African continent tend to say that
[2] A new escalation by the Niger junta is the plan to charge Bazoum with "treason". ECOWAS has already issued a statement condemning that plan. Like I have already said, any attempt to harm Bazoum makes a military intervention more likely.
[3] Niger military junta is "recalling" the Niger Ambassador to Ivory Coast back home in protest at Ivorian President Alhassane Ouattara's hardline stance on military intervention. Whether the Niger ambassador will obey the order to return home is still up in the air as none of the ECOWAS states-- (except suspended members Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali)--recognizes the military junta as the government of Niger. The Niger Ambassador himself may not even recognize the junta as the government of his country. He was appointed by the deposed President to his ambassadorial role.
[4] Tony Blinken spoke to Nigerian President Tinubu for the umpteenth time in several days. I am sure he was lobbying for military intervention. I reiterate again my prediction that there would be no intervention unless domestic opposition in Nigeria is neutralized by any of following events-- (a) Sudden break-out of infighting among the coup leaders, causing a rapid deterioration of the political situation inside Niger; (b) A resumption of the frozen insurgency in the Northern region of Niger, causing again a degeneration of the political-civil situation in the country; (c) Harming the ousted President Bazoum in any way while he is in the custody of the coup leaders (and that includes the junta's new plan for a "treason trial")
A very comprehensive piece. It should be required reading for anyone who seeks understanding of the situation there. I appreciate Simplicius directing his readers here. I will definitely subscribe.
Yes, it was Bush Jr who set off the chain of events that caused US troops to enter Niger as "trainers" and "advisors" to Niger soldiers. Some of the coup leaders are beneficiaries of American military training. That explains why the coup leaders are asking French troops to leave, but have not asked American troops to do the same
Left out of your commentary is the apparent overwhelming support for the coup by the people of Niger itself. Only 4% of Nigeriens indicated support for intervention by ECOWAS. No doubt this apparent domestic mass support for the actions of the Junta against what many viewed to be an irredeemably compromised and corrupt government has stayed the hand of Nigerian leadership. https://tass.com/world/1658013
Let me start off by saying that, for what it is worth, I don't think that ECOWAS will intervene militarily because Tinubu's will to do anything about the coup leaders have been scuttled by strident domestic opposition at home. Nigeria created, funds and controls ECOWAS. If Nigeria is unable to intervene in Niger, then ECOWAS cannot do anything. It is that simple.
No amount of huffing and puffing by Nuland, Macron, Blinken can change that. Military action rests on the neutralization of domestic opposition within Nigeria, the regional powerhouse and hegemon of West Africa.
I agree with you that majority of Niger citizens do not want military intervention. I am not sure if the figure is really 4%. However, I know majority are against the intervention. But being against military intervention is not necessarily an endorsement of the coup. In Nigeria, many people are also against ECOWAS intervention even though they are not in support of the coup.
In Nigeria, there has been anti-intervention demonstrations in the Northern city of Kano. The Federal Senate has blocked Tinubu from authorizing military action. A Nigerian civil society group has gone to court to block any intervention, citing fears of a refugee crisis if military action was taken in Niger.
As for Bazoum being "corrupt", well corruption is par for the course in many African countries including Niger. There is always this assumption by foreigners that if a coup occurs in an African state then the overthrown government was "irredeemably compromised". By what measure is this assertion being made?
It reminds me of those who assumed that elected civilian President Roch Marc Christian Kabore of Burkina Faso must be a French stooge after he was overthrown by military coupists led by Colonel Henri-Paul Damibia. In reality, Kabore had a rocky relationship with France, which reached its peak when Kabore walked out of a joint press conference with Emmanuel Macron, leaving the shocked French President laughing nervously and cracking jokes about Kabore walking out out of the press conference to go fix the room's air-conditioning system which was not working.
Yet, when the mildly anti-French Kabore government of Burkina Faso was overthrown, everybody celebrated as if Macron's "sock-puppet" has been removed. The Kabore government was replaced by the virulently anti-French military regime of Colonel Henri-Paul Damibia, which was itself overthrown within a few months by another virulently anti-French military regime led by Captain Ibrahim Traore.
So, why is one anti-French military regime overthrowing another anti-French military regime? Maybe, it is not really about "anti-imperialism" or any ideology for that matter. Maybe, it is just about seeking power for its own sake. Anyways, I continue to keep an open mind on the Burkina Faso situation. At the moment, I will continue to give the benefit of the doubt to the military regime of Ibrahim Traore.
Back to the situation in Niger Republic...
The coup leader General Abdourahamane Tchiani, is not a new character in Niger. He was head of the Presidential Guards for quite a while. In 2021, this army general actually quashed a military coup against Bazoum who had just been elected. In 2023, the same general is staging a coup against Bazoum. Why is this? Is it really about "anti-imperialism"?
Why did General Abdourahamane Tchiani only stage his coup after he had already fallen out with President Bazoum and was facing the prospect of being sacked? Why did he trigger his coup as soon as Bazoum asked him to resign? Was the coup really about "French/USA imperialism" or was it a case of an ambitious army general trying to forestall his being sacked by striking first? These are important questions that readers of "anti-imperialist" alternative media outlets should ask themselves.
Niger is an ethnically and racially divided country. The light-skinned ethnic minorities of Northern Niger are often seen as "foreigners" by the Hausa-speaking dark skinned majority of Southern Niger. Before the coup, Bazoum was often derided as a "foreign settler from Algeria" by many people from the South. Of course, this is entirely false. Bazoum was born in Niger like many of his ancestors. But that is how many Northerners are perceived in Niger by Southerners.
So majority of Niger citizens (i.e. southerners) being against Bazoum is not about "corruption" per se. There is an ethno-racial animosity and I just hope that does not lead to a resumption of the frozen insurgency waged by Northerners against the Niger national state.
I very much appreciate your shedding light on local politics and how smaller regional powers interact with the 'World Policeman' and other international factions of interest. Especially to a domestic American audience it's really easy to see everything as flat due to both a lack of familiarity and intentional extreme propaganda effects for domestic audiences (or reaction thereunto). Thanks for that. I look forward to seeing much more.
Chima, what are the treason charges against Bazoum for? What has he been accused of doing? I can't find anything in the western media explaining what act the charges are for.
In terms of geopolitics and the existential threat posed by Russia to US imperialism the use of every means including financial/economic covert threats to destabilise Nigeria is likely. How vulnerable is the Nigerian economy in this context ?
"What alarms Macron government about the military coup in Niger is not uranium supplies, but yet another blow to French influence in a Francophone African country". Indeed.
What is hardly mentioned in the press is that soon after his first election to the presidency in 2017, Macron chose as his legacy construction the costly renovation of a dilapidated royal castle known for the signature of the Villers-Coterets Act of 1539 which instituted French as the official administrative language of France instead of latin and reinforced control over the church, solidifying king François Ist's grip on the kingdom. Macron's project was to turn it into a "Cité internationale de la langue française", and to found his foreign policy on the soft power domination of the French language. Of course this was as immature and misguided as most of his political decisions, and inconsistent with the fact that he praises himself to be the first French president to express himself publicly in English, which in fact is often an embarrassment (and even led to the suppression of some tweets) his command of the language being shaky at best.
But back to the Villers-Coterets project. Since president Pompidou, each French president has left a new trophy cultural institution as his legacy (centre Pompidou, Orsay museum (Giscard d'Estaing), second national library (Mitterrand), museum of non-western civilizations (Chirac)). Macron, the first of a generation who grew up in the ersatz of American culture that now permeates France's popular culture, did not read the tea leaves and chose what was a former nursing home located in a pauperized region north-east of Paris with one of the lowest rates of literacy in the country, to house his ambitions to renew France's influence over Africa through the French language. The grandiose project was announced to be opened in March 2022 (before the next presidential election) but the opening was postponed several times and is now scheduled for October 2023. In the meantime, one poor enclaved former colony after the next is dumping French as an official language as Macron's clumsy handling of African affairs and his avowed attempt to use the French as a domination tool backfire. How many chiefs of state will show up in October? That will be a test of what remains of French cultural prestige.
Paradoxically, the institution could also be the last nail in the coffin, considering how pitiful the state of the French language is inside France itself, where a bastardized American gibberish now reigns supreme, and where national funerals are bestowed by Macron on a fake American rock singer unknown outside of France (Jean-Philippe Smet aka Johnny Halliday) while a world-renowned French singer who has sung in French in many countries (Charles Aznavour) is buried without fanfare.
Excellent piece, I learned quite a few things about the situation. It's the most detailed explanation on what's really happening there
SOME NEW UPDATES (15 AUGUST 2023):
[1] The new military junta of Niger remains uncompromising in its attitude towards peace dialogue offered by Northern Nigerian emissaries sent by President Bola Tinubu. One Nigerian Muslim religious scholar involved in the peace dialogue said that the coup leaders in Niger are claiming that they would only be in power for a "short time to put things right in the country" before returning to pure military duties. But then, all coup leaders in the African continent tend to say that
[2] A new escalation by the Niger junta is the plan to charge Bazoum with "treason". ECOWAS has already issued a statement condemning that plan. Like I have already said, any attempt to harm Bazoum makes a military intervention more likely.
[3] Niger military junta is "recalling" the Niger Ambassador to Ivory Coast back home in protest at Ivorian President Alhassane Ouattara's hardline stance on military intervention. Whether the Niger ambassador will obey the order to return home is still up in the air as none of the ECOWAS states-- (except suspended members Burkina Faso, Guinea and Mali)--recognizes the military junta as the government of Niger. The Niger Ambassador himself may not even recognize the junta as the government of his country. He was appointed by the deposed President to his ambassadorial role.
[4] Tony Blinken spoke to Nigerian President Tinubu for the umpteenth time in several days. I am sure he was lobbying for military intervention. I reiterate again my prediction that there would be no intervention unless domestic opposition in Nigeria is neutralized by any of following events-- (a) Sudden break-out of infighting among the coup leaders, causing a rapid deterioration of the political situation inside Niger; (b) A resumption of the frozen insurgency in the Northern region of Niger, causing again a degeneration of the political-civil situation in the country; (c) Harming the ousted President Bazoum in any way while he is in the custody of the coup leaders (and that includes the junta's new plan for a "treason trial")
A very comprehensive piece. It should be required reading for anyone who seeks understanding of the situation there. I appreciate Simplicius directing his readers here. I will definitely subscribe.
One correction; GWOT was Bush regime's Global War On Terror.
Yes, it was Bush Jr who set off the chain of events that caused US troops to enter Niger as "trainers" and "advisors" to Niger soldiers. Some of the coup leaders are beneficiaries of American military training. That explains why the coup leaders are asking French troops to leave, but have not asked American troops to do the same
I think he's attempting to point out that in the piece you call it the Government War on Terror, but the G stands for Global instead. A minor lacuna.
Lacuna. Neat. I've never read it in an online comment, ever. Clever people with high standards taking part today.
Thank you Chima for this most comprehensive reporting ! Just what I was searching for and look forwarded reading more from you
Outstanding!! So glad I was steered to your substack!!
Left out of your commentary is the apparent overwhelming support for the coup by the people of Niger itself. Only 4% of Nigeriens indicated support for intervention by ECOWAS. No doubt this apparent domestic mass support for the actions of the Junta against what many viewed to be an irredeemably compromised and corrupt government has stayed the hand of Nigerian leadership. https://tass.com/world/1658013
Let me start off by saying that, for what it is worth, I don't think that ECOWAS will intervene militarily because Tinubu's will to do anything about the coup leaders have been scuttled by strident domestic opposition at home. Nigeria created, funds and controls ECOWAS. If Nigeria is unable to intervene in Niger, then ECOWAS cannot do anything. It is that simple.
No amount of huffing and puffing by Nuland, Macron, Blinken can change that. Military action rests on the neutralization of domestic opposition within Nigeria, the regional powerhouse and hegemon of West Africa.
I agree with you that majority of Niger citizens do not want military intervention. I am not sure if the figure is really 4%. However, I know majority are against the intervention. But being against military intervention is not necessarily an endorsement of the coup. In Nigeria, many people are also against ECOWAS intervention even though they are not in support of the coup.
In Nigeria, there has been anti-intervention demonstrations in the Northern city of Kano. The Federal Senate has blocked Tinubu from authorizing military action. A Nigerian civil society group has gone to court to block any intervention, citing fears of a refugee crisis if military action was taken in Niger.
As for Bazoum being "corrupt", well corruption is par for the course in many African countries including Niger. There is always this assumption by foreigners that if a coup occurs in an African state then the overthrown government was "irredeemably compromised". By what measure is this assertion being made?
It reminds me of those who assumed that elected civilian President Roch Marc Christian Kabore of Burkina Faso must be a French stooge after he was overthrown by military coupists led by Colonel Henri-Paul Damibia. In reality, Kabore had a rocky relationship with France, which reached its peak when Kabore walked out of a joint press conference with Emmanuel Macron, leaving the shocked French President laughing nervously and cracking jokes about Kabore walking out out of the press conference to go fix the room's air-conditioning system which was not working.
Yet, when the mildly anti-French Kabore government of Burkina Faso was overthrown, everybody celebrated as if Macron's "sock-puppet" has been removed. The Kabore government was replaced by the virulently anti-French military regime of Colonel Henri-Paul Damibia, which was itself overthrown within a few months by another virulently anti-French military regime led by Captain Ibrahim Traore.
So, why is one anti-French military regime overthrowing another anti-French military regime? Maybe, it is not really about "anti-imperialism" or any ideology for that matter. Maybe, it is just about seeking power for its own sake. Anyways, I continue to keep an open mind on the Burkina Faso situation. At the moment, I will continue to give the benefit of the doubt to the military regime of Ibrahim Traore.
Back to the situation in Niger Republic...
The coup leader General Abdourahamane Tchiani, is not a new character in Niger. He was head of the Presidential Guards for quite a while. In 2021, this army general actually quashed a military coup against Bazoum who had just been elected. In 2023, the same general is staging a coup against Bazoum. Why is this? Is it really about "anti-imperialism"?
Why did General Abdourahamane Tchiani only stage his coup after he had already fallen out with President Bazoum and was facing the prospect of being sacked? Why did he trigger his coup as soon as Bazoum asked him to resign? Was the coup really about "French/USA imperialism" or was it a case of an ambitious army general trying to forestall his being sacked by striking first? These are important questions that readers of "anti-imperialist" alternative media outlets should ask themselves.
Niger is an ethnically and racially divided country. The light-skinned ethnic minorities of Northern Niger are often seen as "foreigners" by the Hausa-speaking dark skinned majority of Southern Niger. Before the coup, Bazoum was often derided as a "foreign settler from Algeria" by many people from the South. Of course, this is entirely false. Bazoum was born in Niger like many of his ancestors. But that is how many Northerners are perceived in Niger by Southerners.
So majority of Niger citizens (i.e. southerners) being against Bazoum is not about "corruption" per se. There is an ethno-racial animosity and I just hope that does not lead to a resumption of the frozen insurgency waged by Northerners against the Niger national state.
I very much appreciate your shedding light on local politics and how smaller regional powers interact with the 'World Policeman' and other international factions of interest. Especially to a domestic American audience it's really easy to see everything as flat due to both a lack of familiarity and intentional extreme propaganda effects for domestic audiences (or reaction thereunto). Thanks for that. I look forward to seeing much more.
Brilliant, eye-opening info & summary, like what happened with AFRICOM, I hadn't kept track after the 2K-noughties:
"As a result of this, AFRICOM is still in its “temporary” location of Stuttgart, Germany, almost two decades after the African continent rejected it."
You couldn't make it up. AFRICOM HQ in Stuttgart! The Americans don't do irony or self effacement
Chima, what are the treason charges against Bazoum for? What has he been accused of doing? I can't find anything in the western media explaining what act the charges are for.
I am yet to see the details of the treason charges. We only have the new junta's plan to charge Bazoum with "treason"
In terms of geopolitics and the existential threat posed by Russia to US imperialism the use of every means including financial/economic covert threats to destabilise Nigeria is likely. How vulnerable is the Nigerian economy in this context ?