AN ASSESSMENT OF KAZAKH-RUSSIA RELATIONS
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**Author’s Note: This article was originally written in October 2022. Although, Kazakh-Russia relations are not directly comparable to Russia-Armenia relations, this article does remind me of the resentment that some smaller post-Soviet states feel towards the eminence, wealth and sheer size of Russia**
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In one of his speeches, Joe Biden said that countries ranging from his own USA to Kazakhstan do not—and would not—recognize the absorption of Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporozhe and Kherson into the Russian Federation.
The name-dropping of Kazakhstan was not by accident. It was a cynical attempt to drive a wedge between Russia and Kazakhstan. After all, the Americans know very well that a large segment of the Kazakh ruling elites are fearful of the cultural and linguistic reach of Russia within Kazakhstan, and deeply resentful of Russia's immense power and influence in the larger Central Asian region.
Of course, this fear is not unique to Kazakhstan. A considerable number of smaller former USSR republics feel the same way despite all the help that Russia has rendered to them over the decades.
Nearly all these smaller former Soviet republics have passed laws trying to somewhat limit the reach of Russian language and culture within their societies. The official excuse is that they want to promote and preserve their own native languages and cultures.
Armenia even went as far as closing some Russian language schools shortly after it gained independence from USSR. The Armenians did this, despite Russia’s constant financial aid and the Russian military base protecting them from Turkey and Azerbaijan.
In March 2007, the President of Tajikistan changed his name from Emomali Sharipovich Rahmonov to just Emomali Rahmon. He got rid of the “ov” at the end of his former russified surname and disavowed his Russian middle name. What reason did he give for “de-russifying” his name? Well, he said that he wanted to honour his own native Tajik culture.
Of course, it goes without saying that President Rahmon’s “de-russification” campaign does not extend to stopping Russia from pumping loads of money into his government and maintaining a military base for the protection of Tajikistan against jihadist terrorists.
As President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev did everything he could to whittle down Russian influence in his country and promote Western values, including altering his country’s Soviet-derived national laws to fit better with English Common Law.
While doing all of this, he maintained “good” relations with Vladmir Putin not because he liked the Russian leader, but because he was not as stupid as Mikheil Saakashvili of Georgia and Volodymyr (Vladimir) Zelensky of Ukraine.
Nursultan knew very well what would happen if he tried the patience of Russia, especially with regards to Northern Kazakhstan filled to the rafters with ethnic Russians.
When the quietly russophobic Nursultan Nazarbayev retired as President of Kazakhstan, allegedly to tend to his health (prostrate cancer), he made sure to install his protégé, the quietly russophobic Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in power. However, the two powerful Kazakh politicians fell out because Nursultan wanted to keep pulling puppet strings while Kassam preferred to cut those strings and act independently.
SIDE BAR: In Nigeria, we had a similar power struggle between former President Olusegun Matthew Obasanjo and his protégé-successor, President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua. After Yar’ Adua’s untimely death, his successor, President Goodluck Jonathan inherited and won the power struggle, forcing the semi-retired Obasanjo out of the then ruling political party. Reflecting on his expulsion from a political party that he once led, Obasanjo famously said that the first person killed by a new king is the kingmaker because the king would never feel safe in his position, knowing that it was within the kingmaker's power to dethrone him and appoint another king.
The power struggle between (pro-China) President Tokayev and (pro-Western) former President Nazarbayev bubbled heavily below the surface. And for three years, it was kept from exploding by Vladimir Putin whose efforts to mediate between Tokayev and his estranged mentor, Nazarbayev, ultimately failed.
In January 2021, there were angry street demonstrations against rising petroleum prices in Kazakhstan. Nazarbayev’s allies seized the opportunity to hijack the protests and tried to use the cover of the demonstrations to overthrow Tokayev.
Some observers claim that British and American intelligence guys were involved in the attempted Colour Revolution. I don't know if that is actually a fact, but it would not surprise me if it were. After all, a Nazarbayev-controlled regime would be more favourable to the United States than a government run by the China-friendly Tokayev.
Faced with russophobic (but pro-China) Tokayev and russophobic (but pro-Western) Nazarbayev, Vladimir Putin decided that Tokayev was a much better choice.
The Russian leader caused the (russophobic) Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan— then Chairman of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)— to order Russian-dominated CSTO troops to enter Kazakhstan and destroy the attempt to remove Tokayev from power. The military operation was a resounding success.
Tokayev retained power and displaced many of Nazarbayev’s allies still occupying government offices. Nazarbayev himself was stripped of his position as Chairman of the Security Council of Kazakhstan. And much later, the capital city of Kazakhstan named after him reverted to its original name, Astana.
Was Tokayev grateful to Vladimir Putin for helping him? Probably, yes. Did it quench the russophobia? Not really.
Fact is, Kazakh leaders are scared to death of Russia and when they see the annexation of four Ukrainian regions, they begin to imagine the same happening to Northern Kazakhstan. It obviously did not help that famous Russian writer, Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, had advocated for the largely ethnic Russian region of Northern Kazakhstan to be annexed to the Russian Federation.
SIDE BAR: In the Western world, media propaganda has it that Putin admires Aleksandr Dugin. This is, of course, false. The person admired by Putin is Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn. Both men met several times until Solzhenitsyn passed away on 3 August 2008.
So what prompted this article? Well, the Russian Foreign Ministry has just summoned the Kazakh Ambassador Yermek Kosherbayev to explain why the government of Kazakhstan had not expelled Ukrainian Ambassador Pyotr Vrublevsky who advocated the killing of all Russians during an interview with a Kazakh nationalist.
I know the answer. The answer is that Kazakh nationalists, including many in the ruling elite, share the sentiments of the Ukrainian Ambassador in Astana; even if they are too afraid to say it out loud.
In response to the ruckus kicked up by Russia, Kazakhstan Foreign Ministry (KFA) asked Kiev to recall Ambassador Pyotr Vrublevsky, but not before KFA had issued a curt statement taking exception to Russia’s strong reaction to Astana’s reluctance to expel Vrublevsky. The KFA also indicated that the Russian Ambassador in Astana would be summoned for a dressing down.
Meanwhile, many Russians are still waiting to know how a Ukrainian woman got an authentic-looking, fake Kazakh identity card, which allowed her to move around within Russia, and later on, plant the car bomb that killed Dugin’s daughter. Kazakh police authorities seem to be slow-walking that murder investigation.
THE END
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Thanks for providing this information that goes unnoticed by other sources.
I have download your article as a reminder when I address the topic. Thank you.