TRUMP'S BLAND SIMULACRUM OF TOP GUN MAVERICK IN IRAN

Trump deploys smokes and mirrors with cruise missiles before declaring victory and exiting the stage

NOTE: As an academic researcher in the field of engineering, I thought I should weigh in with my initial impressions of the US attack on Iranian nuclear facilities yesterday.

Old satellite image of a mountainous Iranian nuclear site labelled by the Institute For Science and International Security

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For those unfamiliar, many of Iran’s nuclear facilities are located within a network of interconnected caverns burrowed into mountains. These subterranean facilities are impervious to bunker buster bombs, which were originally created to penetrate ordinary soil to reach underground bunkers.

To put things in their proper context, America's most powerful bunker buster bomb (GBU-57) was designed to penetrate 70 metres of soil to reach underground facilities. When this bunker buster bomb is used against underground facilities hidden under solid rock, its maximum penetration depth is 4 to 7 metres, depending on how hardened the rock material is. Facilities located deep beneath solid granite are nearly impervious to these bunker busters.

Rafael Grossi is the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

Iran’s most sensitive nuclear facilities are buried inside mountains at depth of 300 metres and above. According to IAEA Chief Rafael Grossi, Fordow nuclear facility is buried inside a mountain at a depth of half a mile (805 metres). Less sensitive nuclear facilities are buried at shallower depths of 40 to 90 metres. The Natanz nuclear site has both overground and underground facilities. The underground facilities, containing centrifuges for enriching Uranium, are located at a depth of 50 metres inside a mountain.

Solid granite material of Iranian mountains—reinforced with Ultra High Performance Concrete (UHPC)—renders bunker buster bombs almost worthless. Hence, news reports that hardliners in the Trump Administration were urging the Orange Strongman to use tactical (i.e. small) nuclear bombs, which has the capacity to penetrate these facilities.

The problem here is that even if tactical nuclear weapons were employed, the damage to Iran’s underground facilities would be moderate due to the presence of blast traps (and blast doors) designed to dissipate shockwaves generated when tactical nukes (or conventional bunker busters) are detonated.

The loading of the heavy-duty GBU-57 bunker buster bomb

Conventional bunker buster bombs are heavy-duty aerial gravity bombs, which means subsonic B-2 jet bombers would have to enter contested Iranian air space and then drop the bombs over multiple nuclear facilities while doing its best to avoid being targeted by local anti-aircraft defence systems, which have modern radar that can detect so-called “stealth” aircraft much better than the obsolete Soviet radar that allowed Yugoslavia to shoot down an American “stealth” bomber in 1999.

I could be wrong here, but I strongly doubt that Trump would risk the humiliation of having B-2 jet bombers shot down over contested Iranian airspace. It is my considered opinion that no US aircraft entered Iran to drop any bunker buster bombs.

B-2 Spirit is a US heavy strategic bomber is said to be a “stealth” aircraft

What I think happened here was that Trump authorized the US Navy to fire cruise missiles at known Iranian nuclear sites. This was done and the missiles hit the top surface of the mountains, inflicting minor damage to the entrance and exit doorways of access tunnels leading to the underground nuclear facilities. These doorways can easily be fixed within a 48-72 hours.

Contrary to the baloney being spread by Trump and his officials, none of the subterranean nuclear facilities were affected. This is corroborated by the absence of any change in ionizing radiation levels at the vicinity of these facilities and on-the-ground reporting by Iranian journalists.

Just another American Hollywood film production wrapped up, allowing Donald Trump to declare victory and exit the scene.

There is a strong likelihood that Iran would not seek to attack US military assets in the Middle East following Trump’s token military strikes on those nuclear sites. Although, there is a chance that Iran might decide to exit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as a result.

In the meantime, Israel received 27 missile strikes overnight from Iran in response to Netanyahu's ongoing military aggression. Israel’s unprovoked attack on Iran has been condemned by many countries, including Nigeria.

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ADDENDUM: ASSESSMENT OF FORDOW NUCLEAR SITE AFTER US MILITARY STRIKE

From the satellite imagery, we can see there are holes on the mountainous surface of the Fordow facility consistent with my assessment that only minor damages occured at the entry doorways and perhaps the access tunnels leading to the subterranean caverns. Given their great depth, the caverns themselves would not have suffered any damage at all.

Despite what is reported in Euro-American corporate media, I don’t think the Americans used bunker buster bombs against the nuclear sites. Given the size of the holes, I believe large cruise missiles, fired from naval vessels, are the likely cause of the minor damage inflicted on those sites.

Aside the from the holes, there is a crater (misidentified as a “subsidence patch” in the satellite image) which is less than 10 metres across and less than 0.5 metre deep. In other words, the crater is too shallow to have caused any serious damage.

Overall, the satellite imagery indicate that Fordow facility survived intact.

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